File this under Read It Here First: Early December, we noted that the Farmer’s Almanac predicted a rough winter:
“November through January will be mild, with little snow and milder-than-normal temperatures, but by the end of March, winter will be remembered for above-normal snowfall and below-normal temperatures, on average, especially in the south. The coldest periods will be mid-December, mid-January, and from late February through mid-March. The heaviest snowfalls will occur in early, mid- and late February and early and mid-March.”
The upper mid-west area says: “Winter will be colder than normal, with above-normal snowfall in the east and below-normal snowfall in the west. After a cold November, December through early February will be much milder than normal, on average. The remainder of February through mid-March will be exceptionally cold. Other cold periods will occur in late December and mid-January. The snowiest periods will be near Christmas and in late March.”
The temperature today (1/18/05) is not expected to go over 18 degrees. As I write this (5:29am EST), Oil is back over $49. Futures are notably weak.
Props go to the Farmer’s Almanac, who makes their weather predictions a full year in advance — and still run an 80%+ success rate . . .
Chilly
So under favorable circumstances (low driving demand, warm winter weather, no new problems with Yukos etc.) the floor on oil right now seems to be above $40.00 a barrel, and under intermediately unfavorable circumstances (cold weather, Iraqi producti…